BEHAVIOR OF MARGINAL COST PER YEAR

The CMg is calculated every 15 minutes, in a year there are 35,136 values (in a leap year) and 35,040 values (in a non-leap year). The Box Plot Diagram allows you to have a visual idea of the dispersion of a large amount of data and is especially useful for comparing different dispersions simultaneously.

The diagram shows the CMg of the Santa Rosa 220 kV Bus from 2003 to January 2024. It is observed that in 2023 the CMg reached values greater than 400 USD/MW.h (424.0 USD/MW.h), this It had not happened since 2008 where the CMg reached values of 434.2 USD/MW.h.

Focusing from 2020; Although there were values higher than 100 USD/MW.h, the typical values were the following:

  • In 2020 the maximum typical value was 13.02 USD/MW.h
  • En el 2021 el máximo valor típico fue de 51.19 USD/MW.h
  • In 2022 the maximum typical value was 51.04 USD/MW.h
  • In 2023 the maximum typical value was 310.83 USD/MW.h

The high MCg values in 2023 were due to the low water resources that were available during the year, preventing hydroelectric generation from generating greater generation capacity and the use of diesel generation.

And with all this, what awaits us in 2024? Well, the typical values in January 2024 were from 9.01 USD/MW.h to 51.17 USD/MW.h and although there were values higher than 51.17 USD/MW.h up to 238.6 USD/MW.h, these were outliers that only represent 1.8% of the total CMg values that occurred in January 2024, likewise, the El Niño phenomenon does not seem to have affected hydroelectric generation since it generated 3,282.51 GW.h in January, which is a high value for hydroelectric generation.

We have certainly started 2024 with high values and it is still too early to see the behavior of the CMg during the year, it will be prudent to wait until June (beginning of the dry period) where hydroelectric generation decreases and other generation sources are chosen to cover the total demand of the SEIN.

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