Date: February 17
Following an in-depth analysis of recent policies, trends and market developments, including forecasts to 2025 for electricity demand, supply and CO2 emissions, with a detailed study of the evolving generation mix, the Agency International Energy Agency (IEA) presented the Electricity Market Report 2023.
The latest IEA report states that renewables will dominate global electricity supply growth for the next three years, as together with nuclear power they meet the vast majority of global demand growth through 2025, making a significant increase in carbon emissions from the electricity sector.
The IEA also argues that more than 70% of the increase in global electricity demand over the next three years may come from China, India and Southeast Asia, although considerable uncertainties remain about trends in China as its economy emerges from the strict covid restrictions.
The future of clean energy
The data recorded by the report shows that the strong growth of renewables forecasts their share of the global power generation mix to increase from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, with the share of renewable energy-based generation falling. of coal and gas. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation will continue to decline in the coming years. However, Europe bucked this global trend last year.
“The CO2 intensity of power generation in Europe increased as a result of increased use of coal and gas amid sharp declines in output from both hydropower, due to drought, and nuclear power, due to the closing and maintenance of plants. However, this setback will be temporary, as Europe’s power generation emissions are expected to decline on average by around 10% per year until 2025,” the document says.
The new IEA report also highlights that renewables have experienced a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, representing almost 30% of the generation mix, and explains that an increase in renewable generation in the Asia Pacific region accounted for more than the half of the increase, followed by America.
By contrast, nuclear production fell by 4.3%. This was due to maintenance interruptions at a large number of French plants, decommissioning of units in Germany and Belgium, and reduced production in the Ukraine.
“Growing global electricity demand will accelerate, adding more than double Japan’s current electricity consumption over the next three years. The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing fast enough to satisfy almost all of this additional appetite, suggesting that we are nearing a tipping point for power sector emissions. Governments must now allow low-emission sources to grow even faster and reduce emissions so that the world can ensure a secure supply of electricity while meeting climate targets,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Source: Review Energy